EU referendum: Why Remain will win by a mile, and why, on balance, it should
With the Budget out of the way the focus switches to something vastly more important: Brexit. Ten years from now no one will care about what was in the Budget, but we will all remember what happened on 23 June 2016.
There are two insuperable problems about this debate. One is that many people have such strong views they are not going to be swayed by mere economic arguments. So we will have more scare stories of millions of jobs being at risk were we to come out, and more visions of sunlit uplands of economic freedom if we did. But if the decision is emotional, rather than economic, there is not much that economists can contribute.
The other problem is that the economic uncertainties are so huge, that more or less any set of calculations is open to challenge. We have form o...