UK will have worst toll in Europe
The IHME modelling forecasts that by 4 August the UK will see a total of 66,314 deaths an average taken from a large estimate range of between 14,572 and 219,211 deaths, indicating the uncertainties around it.
The newly released data is disputed by scientists whose modelling of the likely shape of the UK epidemic is relied on by the government. Prof Neil Ferguson, of Imperial College London, said the IHME figures on “healthcare demand” including hospital bed use and deaths were twice as high as they should be.
The IHME, which is responsible for the ongoing Global Burden of Disease study, calculated the likely need for hospital admissions and intensive care beds and projected deaths in European countries hit by Covid-19.
Looking at the measures taken by the UK to cu...