Christmas plans for millions of families were in the balance last night as ministers and devolved leaders held talks on curtailing freedoms over the festive period amid warnings that the NHS would be overwhelmed.
At a crisis meeting with Michael Gove, leaders discussed cutting the number of days families can meet from five to three; reducing the number of households mixing from three to two; and introducing travel restrictions or a combination of measures. The four nations will meet again today to agree a joint approach.
The decision described as “incredibly difficult” and heart-rending comes after many families have spent months unable to see or hug one another during the coronavirus pandemic, and just a week before the reunions are due to start.
NHS Providers, which represents hospitals, said trust leaders were seriously worried about the combination of 10,000 fewer beds than last year due to the need for rigorous infection control, and 13,000 of the remaining beds currently occupied by Covid-19 patients.
Chris Hopson, the organisation’s chief executive, said: We recognise the government has a difficult judgment to make about whether to amend the proposed Christmas restrictions or not.
Hours before the talks, the British Medical Journal and Health Service Journal published a rare joint editorial saying the government could no longer claim to be protecting the NHS if it went ahead with rash plans to let households mix indoors, without social distancing, and travel across the country over Christmas.
Health service managers said hospitals could become dangerously full, with operations cancelled, unless ministers rethink the planned relaxation of rules from 23 to 27 December.
Just a fortnight after a four-week national lockdown, Covid-19 case rates are rising in more than three-quarters of all local areas in England, latest data shows. This includes every borough of London, 42 of the 45 local areas in eastern England and 66 of the 67 local areas in south-east England where a new strain of the virus was this week revealed to be spreading quickly.
On Tuesday, 506 people were confirmed to have died with Covid UK-wide, with 17,329 people in hospital.
In Tuesday’s meeting, concerns are understood to have been raised about the risk of a lack of compliance among the public should leaders go back on the offer they made in late November for a chance to meet at Christmas. Leaders discussed a change of messaging akin to the strategy used in Scotland by Nicola Sturgeon, who has been emphasising that people should not gather unless absolutely necessary.
It is understood that the UK government’s preference had been to cut the number of days where household mingling is permitted but concerns were raised about ferry capacity for those travelling to and from Northern Ireland. Limited train services and the potential for gridlock on the roads would also have to be factored in.
Jeremy Hunt, the former health secretary who chairs the Commons health committee, also urged ministers to consider changing the plans for Christmas, saying it would be a very, very dangerous and precarious situation for the NHS to enter January with very high levels of bed occupancy from Covid.
Countries across Europe have announced strict lockdowns over the festive period, including Germany, the Netherlands and the Czech Republic.
In its joint editorial, the British Medical Journal and Health Service Journal said if current trends continue, there will be 19,000 Covid patients in English hospitals by New Year’s Eve the same as at the peak of the first wave on 12 April. Those numbers do not factor in the impact of Christmas households mixing and travelling.
The editorial says the extra caseload of Covid-19 patients is likely to be 40 times higher than at the beginning of the second wave.