Boris Johnson’s government and party are deeply split on whether to push for a general election or attempt again to deliver a Brexit deal, after the prime minister failed to secure a rapid timetable for passing the withdrawal legislation.
Downing Street is awaiting the EU’s decision on whether to grant a Brexit delay until January 31, 2020, as outlined in Mr Johnson’s letter to EU leaders last weekend. A decision is expected on Friday, after which Mr Johnson will have to decide whether to attempt to get his deal approved by parliament, or to try and force an election.
The latest impasse comes after MPs endorsed the prime minister’s Brexit deal in a vote on Tuesday night before rejecting his timetable for passing the legislation, which turns the agreement into UK law.
To pass the withdrawal agreement bill, Mr Johnson would now have to agree a new programme motion with the Labour party, which would probably lead to several weeks of debate and open up his deal to substantial amendments. On Wednesday Mr Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn, the Labour leader, held talks that ended without an agreement.
To break the deadlock Mr Johnson may instead try to force an election before Christmas. But this would require the consent of parliament either through a vote of no confidence in Mr Johnson’s government or under the Fixed-Term Parliaments Act, which would require a two-thirds majority of MPs to back an election.
Members of the cabinet, Mr Johnson’s inner circle and Conservative MPs are all divided on what is now the best course of action. Inside Downing Street, chief adviser Dominic Cummings is one of the more bullish voices arguing for an election in the hope of a fresh mandate for delivering Brexit. “Dom would love one and is driving the argument towards it,” said one ally of the prime minister.
In a meeting on Wednesday evening, the One Nation group of 70-plus moderate Tory MPs also unanimously agreed it was opposed to an election before Brexit was resolved.
Several Conservative MPs are also concerned about the prospect of holding an election in the second week of December when the winter weather might hinder campaigning and activist support. Others point to the threat posed by the Brexit party and the Remain-supporting Liberal Democrats especially if Brexit is unresolved.
One Downing Street insider dismissed talk of a split: “Everyone wants a deal and everyone wants an election if we can’t have a deal.”
Many pro-Brexit ministers also favour an election before the end of the year, arguing that Mr Johnson will become progressively weaker if he is forced to fight protracted battles in the Commons to pass his withdrawal agreement, possibly suffering more defeats along the way.
One minister predicted we’d cream it, with or without a deal. Another member of the cabinet said the priority is still to pass a deal as soon as possible, but not at any price. An election is really needed now.
A cabinet colleague said that every defeat suffered by Mr Johnson would provide ammunition to Nigel Farage’s Brexit party, which would argue that the prime minister was not delivering a real Brexit.