Brexit chaos could plunge Britain into a general election in weeks, ministers said yesterday after rebel MPs voted to seize control of Brexit from the embattled Prime Minister.
Three pro-EU ministers quit the Government to back a Commons amendment enabling MPs to take control of Commons business to stage a series of ‘indicative votes’ on alternatives to the Prime Minister’s deal tomorrow.
They were among 30 Conservative MPs to defy the whips and support the cross-party amendment which was passed by 392 to 302 – a majority of 27 – in another humiliating reverse for Theresa May.
However, Mrs May has warned the government is not bound to honour the result of the indicative votes as they ‘could lead to an outcome that is unnegotiable with the EU’.
Tuesday had been touted as a possible day for the third coming of the meaningful vote on Theresa May’s Brexit deal, following heavy defeats in January and just a fortnight ago.
But the DUP, whose support is key if she has any chance of getting it through the Commons, kiboshed that idea earlier and she announced it would not happen tomorrow.
With no sign that the Prime Minister is prepared to abandon the plan it means she is likely to spend the day trying to hammer out a deal with anyone receptive – if they exist.
The Commons is set to vote tonight to let MPs take control of Brexit. They are likely to hold a series of indicative votes on Brexit alternatives this week, most likely on Wednesday.
The alternatives include a softer Brexit, a second referendum or leaving with No Deal. If one commands a majority, MPs will try to pressure Theresa May into adopting that option. But there is no binding way of making her do so.
If the Commons votes against taking control in tonight’s vote Mrs May said she will make Government time available for some similar votes – which could be on Wednesday. Though some MPs remain sceptical.
Attorney General Geoffrey Cox told a meeting of the Cabinet that failure to pass Mrs May’s plan in the coming weeks would almost inevitably lead to an election.
If MPs do not vote for the agreement in the coming days, he says the Commons will ‘exert itself’ and try to force either a second referendum, or a plan that keeps the UK inside the customs union and single market.
He warns ‘powerful and unreconciled forces’ who opposed Brexit were still trying to stop it and says his biggest fear is the UK will never regain its ‘independence’.
He says: ‘We must grasp our freedom now and heed the beckoning call of the future, for if we do not, history will marvel that we spurned this fleeting moment of opportunity.’
Brexit Q&A: How a motley bunch of MPs plan to take control
What amendments did MPs vote on?
The Speaker selected three for debate and vote yesterday. One, from Jeremy Corbyn, was a fudge designed to avoid splitting his own MPs and called for votes on a series of options – including a second referendum.
Another, from former Labour foreign secretary Margaret Beckett, would have forced MPs to be given a vote on whether to push ahead with No Deal or to delay Brexit.
But the most significant was proposed by former Tory Cabinet minister Oliver Letwin and backed by some Remainer Tories, Labour and other opposition parties. It was designed to take control of Brexit out of ministers’ hands.
What does the Letwin amendment do?
It changes the rules of the House of Commons, the standing orders, to pass control of the agenda from the Government and hand it to backbench MPs.
If it passes then tomorrow afternoon MPs will stage a series of so-called ‘indicative votes’ on what should happen next with Brexit. The Speaker will select the motions to be debated, which are likely to include a second referendum, Labour’s Brexit plan, a Customs Union Brexit, a so-called ‘Norway plus’ plan. Unusually MPs will vote on paper – pink slips which list the options. The votes will not be binding on the Government, but will send a strong signal about what kind of Brexit a majority of MPs are prepared to back and would heap pressure on Mrs May.
Why is he doing it?
Mr Letwin says he wants to stop No Deal because the Government hasn’t properly prepared for leaving without an agreement. He argues Parliament should take over the process to find a Brexit which can secure the support of the Commons. He is a supporter of the super-soft ‘Norway plus’ option, which is likely to mean the UK accepting single market rules without a say in them and paying vast contributions to the EU Budget. It could also mean a permanent customs union, making trade deals impossible.
What do critics say?
They say Mr Letwin’s plan amounts to a coup and is ‘constitutionally dangerous’. A leaked Whitehall analysis of the plans to let MPs take charge say they pose a ‘clear and present danger’ to ministers’ ‘ability to govern’. Yesterday Mr Letwin denied his proposal is a ‘massive constitutional revolution’.
Is a general election more likely?
Several senior ministers argued in Cabinet that if Parliament tried to instruct the executive to do something the Government deeply opposed, such as remaining in the customs union or the single market, an election could follow. Mrs May indicated as much in the Commons when she argued ‘no-one would want to support an option which contradicted the manifesto on which they stood’.
How could an election happen?
Under the Fixed Term Parliament Act, the Prime Minister cannot simply call an election. There are two ways one could result. The first is that two thirds of MPs vote for an election when Mrs May proposes one. The second is that the PM loses a confidence vote and nobody can win one – ie command a majority – within a two-week period.
The Government is prepared to pull the plug and force a General Election if MPs try to seize control of Brexit and make it softer than Theresa May’s deal.