It is time for the nation’s beleaguered remainers to give sincere and heartfelt thanks to Boris Johnson, Jacob Rees-Mogg and the other Tory hardliners trying to scupper prime minister Theresa May’s deal with the EU.
These zealots, the praetorian guard of Leave, now represent the greatest single threat to the Brexit they have worked so ferociously to secure.
Campaigners for a second referendum should offer up a nightly prayer for the continued health of these diehards. A friend ought to take them aside and explain: You’ve won, you dummies. If your heads were not so deeply in the weeds you would see that your oppositionalism is risking the huge gains you have won. The enemies of the people, the saboteurs all the intemperate epithets slung at those deemed to be jeopardising the ‘will of the people’ well, as things stand that’s you.
But, I hear you protest, the prime minister’s Chequers plan, it’s a sellout, a suicide vest. Well, as the philosophers say, Chequers shmequers.
True, the proposed indefinite regulatory alignment and some of her structures look suspiciously like the institutions the UK is leaving. But, as the Brexit-backing environment secretary, Michael Gove, has noted, this can be altered by a future parliament.
Furthermore, while we do not yet know the final deal between the UK and the EU, there is every chance that the guts of the future relationship will not be settled in this phase of negotiations. If it does play out this way and Mrs May is still fighting for a detailed commitment all she will have secured, aside from 21 months of transition, is a non-binding solemn declaration of intent about the future relationship.
A solemn declaration, strewth. None of your whimsical declarations for the UK, oh no. Nothing jocular, zany or frivolous. This will be solemn. It won’t have any formal legal status but at least it will be dignified. The future relationship will still be up for grabs.
There are deeply committed Brexiters who know this. The MEP Daniel Hannan, writing on Conservative Home, struggled to explain the grumpiness of my fellow leavers. Noting that every solution has drawbacks he wondered: Why do MPs who, two years ago, couldn’t have told you. how equivalence in financial regulation differed from passporting, now regard these things as tests of their patriotism? Why is every clod of mud contested like some piece of No-Man’s-Land in 1916?
The answer is a combination of a deep-rooted and not entirely irrational fear of betrayal, narcissism and political ambition. With Mr Johnson, a full-throated fight against Mrs May has also become inextricably entwined with his own leadership ambitions.
The irony is as Mr Gove, Mr Hannan and, indeed, Mr Johnson understand that if, as many expect, the Conservatives force Mrs May out of power next year, it is the new leader who will shape the future trading relationship with the EU. But, whatever the deal, the biggest challenge remains getting it through the UK parliament.
The numbers are too tight to predict the outcome. The question Tory hardliners should ponder is what happens if, thanks to their votes, the May plan is rejected.
Given the clear parliamentary majority against no deal, there are four realistic options. She can try again with the same plan, or perhaps a plan B in which the UK agrees to say in the European Economic Area until a new trade deal is agreed. She could call an election. MPs could use the trade bill to have another go at keeping the UK in the customs union or single market; with no deal looming they might win. Or they could unite around a second referendum.
All but the first option present far more risk to Leavers, than swallowing a May deal to get Brexit over the line. The second referendum has yet to reach critical mass Jeremy Corbyn remains reluctant to adopt it but if the Johnsonian wing bring on the chaos of no deal, they may give the people’s vote the boost it needs to secure parliamentary backing. Of course, Leave might win again but it is a big risk to take so close to victory.
So the hardliners face a hard choice. Swallow their doubts, or stay pure and see their dream diluted or lost. What an irony it would be if the fatal blow to Brexit was not delivered by its enemies but by its most fervent advocates.